The next crypto bull run will be different from the previous one, according to Lars Seier Christensen, the founder of enterprise blockchain Concordium. He believes that investors should not expect cryptocurrency prices to skyrocket imminently. Christensen doubts that the approval of proposed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will have an immediate significant impact on the crypto markets. He suggests that even if Bitcoin rallies, other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and older altcoins are unlikely to rally in sync.
Christensen highlights that while digital asset prices have been dampened over the past 18 months, there is continued interest in blockchain technology from the corporate side. He argues that the industry’s next big step will not be marked by a flashy rally like in 2021, but rather by subdued growth over the next 18 months. Corporate entities do not necessarily need cryptocurrencies to increase significantly in value; instead, they require them to execute their operations on a given blockchain.
Ben Simpson, the founder of crypto education platform Collective Shift, disagrees with Christensen and suggests that there are indicators pointing towards the initial stages of a Bitcoin bull market. Simpson believes that the next bull market will benefit assets like Bitcoin, Ether, and application-specific tokens and sectors like gaming. He considers decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens to be risky but offering significant upside potential.
The crypto industry has faced challenges in the last two years, including a hawkish Federal Reserve and high-profile collapses such as FTX and Celsius Network, leading to a decrease in investment and crypto asset prices. However, with the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate hikes, eToro Markets analyst Josh Gilbert expresses optimism about the macro outlook. He believes that as inflation subsides and rates fall, investors will take on more risk and allocate more capital to financial markets, making crypto assets more attractive.
Gilbert, among many other market commentators, predicts that 2024 could be a strong year for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, with the Bitcoin halving serving as a centerpiece for their optimism. However, market analyst Tina Teng from CMC Markets suggests that it is too early to determine whether a bull market in crypto has begun. Teng indicates that it depends on the macro environment and the willingness of central banks to end their rate hikes, providing enough liquidity to the markets. She points out that previous cryptocurrency market booms occurred during rate cut cycles, not during hiking cycles.
Teng believes that for the thesis of an imminent bull market to be validated, Bitcoin needs to break through the 50-day moving average and experience another significant surge upwards. The market currently faces uncertainty due to tightening monetary policies, government bond yields, and inverted bond yields, which signal potential economic uncertainty ahead.
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